聯準會FOMC與黃金的短期影響

台灣時間6/15凌晨兩點聯準會將公佈會議結果，眾所矚目的QE縮表議題會不會透露耐人尋味。但是統計過去聯準會開會前後的黃金走勢，

驚人的發現是聯準會開會之後的黃金走勢會擴大

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
4.67%	-0.76%	-1.70%	-2.93%	-0.20%	1.52%
-2.71%	0.39%	-0.82%	1.63%	3.09%	2.55%
0.60%	1.00%	-0.78%	-2.38%	0.69%	-1.75%
-1.19%	-5.85%	1.83%	2.02%	2.14%
-0.13%	-0.44%	-0.71%	-0.25%	0.96%
2.44%	4.96%	-1.25%	2.15%	0.98%
0.50%	-2.27%	-1.76%	-2.68%	-0.21%
-1.37%	-2.80%	0.27%	-2.40%	-3.04%

然後有舉行記者會的時候，黃金前後一日漲跌相反走勢的機率升高

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
有記者會	-0.44%	-0.20%	-1.31%	-0.30%	-0.28%	-0.48%
	-2.71%	0.39%	-0.82%	1.63%	3.09%	2.55%
	-1.51%	0.44%	0.18%	0.02%	-0.30%
	-1.19%	-5.85%	1.83%	2.02%	2.14%
	-0.22%	-0.86%	0.30%	-0.01%	0.94%
	2.44%	4.96%	-1.25%	2.15%	0.98%
	0.37%	-0.10%	-0.56%	1.30%	0.32%
	-1.37%	-2.80%	0.27%	-2.40%	-3.04%
反向次數	2	3	3	3	3	1

目前看起來，這一次開會前上漲的機率很高，意味著明天來看黃金的走勢下跌機率偏高